The South African Reserve Bank published updated composite business cycle indicators showing that the composite leading business cycle indicator rose by 1.4% in November 2025, while the coincident indicator increased by 0.3% in October 2025 and the lagging indicator fell by 0.4% in October 2025. The increase in the leading indicator reflected gains in eight of the ten available component series, with the largest positive contributions coming from accelerations in the six-month smoothed growth rates of the real M1 money supply and job advertisement space. The only negative contributions came from a narrowing of the interest rate spread and a deceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate in the number of new passenger vehicles sold, while gross operating surplus as a percentage of gross domestic product was listed as an unavailable component series. The next release is scheduled for 24 February 2026 at 09:00.
South African Reserve Bank 2026-01-27
South African Reserve Bank reports a 1.4% rise in the composite leading business cycle indicator in November 2025
The South African Reserve Bank reported the composite leading business cycle indicator rose by 1.4% in November 2025, driven by gains in eight of ten component series, notably real M1 money supply and job advertisement space. The coincident indicator increased by 0.3% in October 2025, while the lagging indicator fell by 0.4% in the same month. Negative contributions to the leading indicator included a narrowing interest rate spread and a slowdown in new passenger vehicle sales.