The European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) released its January 2026 risk dashboard for institutions for occupational retirement provision (IORPs), concluding that overall risks in the European IORP sector remain stable, although geopolitical uncertainty continues to weigh on the macroeconomic and market risk outlook. Macroeconomic conditions were described as showing signs of stability, supported by GDP growth and easing inflation, but persistent geopolitical instability including tensions in Venezuela, Iran and increasingly Greenland was highlighted as a source of heightened global uncertainty. Sovereign and corporate bond spreads tightened modestly, while elevated uncertainty and foreseen increases in public spending on defence and infrastructure could put upward pressure on spreads. EIOPA also flagged valuation pressures in financial markets, warning that an unwinding of an AI-related asset price bubble could amplify market corrections. Within the sector, portfolio performance in 2024 was positive and the financial position of Defined Benefit IORPs strengthened, driven by strong investment returns alongside higher long-term interest rates lowering the present value of pension liabilities. The dashboard is based on European Economic Area regulatory reporting data up to the third quarter of 2025, covering 625 IORPs, and is complemented with market data with a cut-off date of end-December 2025.

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