The National Bank of Denmark has published an analysis finding that firms adopting artificial intelligence subsequently record lower employment growth than comparable nonusers, even as total employment and wages show no clear effects. AI tools are now used by 59% of Danish firms, with adoption concentrated among larger, more productive businesses and those employing more highly educated workers. Firms that adopted AI during 2023 or early 2024 had employment by mid-2025 about 11% below their previous trend, relative to the corresponding deviation among firms that did not use AI. This represents slower employment growth rather than an outright fall in headcount and primarily reflects fewer new hires, particularly among younger and more highly educated workers. The absence of an aggregate effect suggests that workers who might otherwise have joined AI adopting firms have found jobs elsewhere in Denmark’s flexible labor market. The central bank’s economic projection assumes gradual AI implementation over the next two to three years, allowing affected workers to move to other jobs and leaving total employment unchanged. It cautions that faster adoption could temporarily raise unemployment, while new firms, job functions and investment could instead support employment.
2026-09-16National Bank of Denmark
National Bank of Denmark finds AI adoption is slowing firm level employment growth without reducing total employment
The National Bank of Denmark finds that AI adopting firms have reduced employment growth mainly through fewer hires, particularly among younger and more highly educated workers. Total employment and wages show no clear effects, suggesting displaced hiring has been absorbed elsewhere. The central bank’s baseline projection assumes no aggregate employment impact over the next two to three years, although risks run in both directions.