Sweden's Riksbank explains how policy rate forecasts scenarios and attributed minutes underpin its monetary policy communication

The Riksbank published a speech by First Deputy Governor Anna Breman setting out how greater transparency can help central banks reduce uncertainty for households, firms and markets about their assessment of the economy, key trade-offs, risks and the most reasonable monetary policy path. Speaking at the Bank of England’s “Transforming monetary policy” conference, she reviewed the Riksbank’s experience with three communication tools that she said distinguish it from many peers. Breman highlighted the publication of a policy rate forecast, alternative scenarios and attributed minutes as the core elements of the Riksbank’s approach, while noting that institutional set-ups can limit how far other central banks can go. The policy rate path has been published since 2007 and is framed as a “forecast, not a promise”, with forecast errors described as a normal consequence of policy adjusting to shocks; she also pointed to a change from the March 2024 Monetary Policy Report that differentiates communication of the Executive Board’s view of the policy rate over the next three quarters from a longer-term three-year path used as a technical input to projections. Alternative scenarios have been used since 2007 and, since April 2023, the Monetary Policy Report has routinely presented alternative numerical paths for inflation, GDP and the policy rate; attributed minutes with named speakers have been published since June 2007, which she said has increased the detail of members’ explanations and supports accountability and predictability. Looking ahead, Breman argued that publishing alternative scenarios is likely to become more relevant for more central banks if elevated economic policy uncertainty persists.