Federal Reserve Board research finds no evidence that higher AI adoption has reduced firms’ job postings

The Federal Reserve Board published a FEDS Note analysing whether firms and industries with higher levels of artificial intelligence adoption are posting fewer jobs. Using post-2022 data, the authors find no evidence so far that AI adoption is associated with lower job-posting volumes, and conclude that the broader post-pandemic slowdown in national job postings does not appear to be driven by AI. The analysis combines Lightcast online job-postings data with the US Census Bureau’s Business Trends and Outlook Survey (BTOS) measures of AI use and planned AI use, estimating models at both the 3-digit NAICS industry level and the firm level with adoption lagged by 1, 3, 6 and 12 months over September 2023 to November 2025. Industry-level results are generally positive and mostly not statistically significant, and the note highlights that implied effects are small when scaled by reported adoption rates (around 10% for recent AI use and 14% for planned AI use in BTOS). Firm-level adoption is proxied by whether AI or machine learning was required in prior postings, with results described as precisely estimated null effects, including for firms that have ever posted AI roles and for large firms (defined as at least 300 postings in the sample). The note frames the findings as backward-looking and not causal, and it does not rule out negative impacts concentrated in particular occupations that could be offset by shifts in hiring priorities. It indicates the exercise is intended for ongoing monitoring of potential labor-market impacts as AI adoption evolves.