The Austrian National Bank published a report modelling the short-term oil price effects of Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, estimating that a prolonged total shutdown could lift Brent by 38% to 99% to around USD 101 to USD 146 per barrel. It notes that Brent rose from USD 73 to about USD 100 in the first two weeks, placing observed price moves so far at the lower end of the modelled range. The analysis assumes a total closure reduces global crude oil supply by 20 million barrels per day, reflecting that roughly one-fifth of global oil volumes transit the strait, and calibrates price responses using historically observed reactions to supply shocks. Four scenarios are assessed, combining a total closure with different mitigating measures such as rerouting oil via pipelines, exemptions for Iranian tankers and releases of strategic petroleum reserves; with all countermeasures applied, the estimated price range falls to USD 86 to USD 107, corresponding to an 18% to 47% increase versus the pre-conflict level.
Austrian National Bank (OeNB) 2026-03-26
Austrian National Bank report projects Brent could rise to USD 101–146 if the Strait of Hormuz closure persists
The Austrian National Bank released a report estimating that a total closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran could increase Brent crude oil prices by 38% to 99%, reaching USD 101 to USD 146 per barrel. The report models a 20 million barrel per day reduction in global supply and evaluates four scenarios with mitigating measures, which could lower the price increase to 18% to 47%, resulting in prices between USD 86 and USD 107 per barrel.