The Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) left the base rate unchanged at 18.0 percent after its 6 March 2026 forecast round, judging that moderately tight monetary conditions are still needed to anchor elevated inflation expectations and guide headline inflation, which slowed to 11.7 percent in February from 12.2 percent in January, toward the single-digit range of 9.5–11.5 percent projected for 2026. Following a cumulative 150 bp increase to 18 percent in October 2025, the rate has been kept steady at subsequent meetings. Tightness is being reinforced through phased increases in minimum reserve requirements, mirroring operations and macro-prudential curbs that have cooled unsecured consumer lending growth to –7.2 percent y/y this January. The economy remains resilient, with non-commodity sectors expanding and GDP forecast to grow by 3.5–4.5 percent in 2026, though retail trade growth has eased to 2.1 percent as households adjust to higher taxes. Disinflation is supported by a moratorium on utilities and fuel tariffs and a more favourable tenge exchange rate, but risks persist from elevated expectations, potential second-round effects of tax and price reforms, and geopolitical volatility that could affect oil prices—NBK’s baseline now assumes Brent at USD 66.3/bbl this year before easing to USD 60. The Committee reiterated that there is “still no room” to cut rates; it may consider easing in the second half of 2026 only if inflation decelera
National Bank of Kazakhstan 2026-03-06
NBK holds base rate steady at 18.0%
National Bank of Kazakhstan’s Monetary Policy Committee kept the base rate at 18.0 % at its 6 March 2026 meeting, citing the need for continued tight policy even as inflation slowed to 11.7 % in February versus a 9.5–11.5 % 2026 target range. The Committee reiterated that rate cuts will be considered only in H2 2026 if disinflation is sustained and warned it could tighten further should pro-inflationary risks rise.