The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has published a study examining how retail banking could evolve by 2035 under three plausible scenarios. These envisage incumbent banks adapting while retaining dominance, digital banks and fintechs gaining significant market share, or banking shifting toward interconnected platforms and ecosystems involving a broader range of providers. Greater digitalisation and competition could improve services, efficiency, participation and consumer outcomes. However, more complex and interconnected models could increase operational and cyber risks, reliance on a small number of technology providers, risks arising from artificial intelligence, liquidity pressures and activity outside the current prudential perimeter. The study does not recommend policy changes or identify a preferred scenario. Its findings will inform the Reserve Bank’s market monitoring, supervision, policy development and assessment of whether regulatory frameworks, the prudential perimeter and crisis management arrangements remain effective as banking evolves.
2026-09-17Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Reserve Bank of New Zealand publishes three banking scenarios to 2035 and identifies emerging regulatory risks
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has outlined three possible banking models for 2035, ranging from incumbent led evolution to greater digital bank competition and interconnected platform ecosystems. The study identifies potential benefits from innovation and competition, alongside operational, artificial intelligence, liquidity and regulatory perimeter risks. It does not propose policy changes but will inform future monitoring, supervision and policy work.