The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data published the July 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations, showing that households’ median inflation expectations rose at the one-year and five-year horizons while remaining unchanged at the three-year horizon. The release also points to smaller expected growth in tax payments and improved assessments of household financial situations, alongside mixed labor market expectations. Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations increased to 3.1% (from 3.0%) and five-year-ahead expectations rose to 2.9% (from 2.6%), with three-year-ahead expectations steady at 3.0%; inflation uncertainty declined at the one-year and three-year horizons. Home price growth expectations were unchanged at 3.0%, while year-ahead expected price changes fell for gas (3.9%), medical care (9.2%), college education (8.7%) and rent (7.0%), and were unchanged for food (5.5%). On labor markets, median earnings growth expectations edged up to 2.6% and mean unemployment expectations fell to 37.4%, while the perceived probability of losing a job rose to 14.4% and the perceived probability of finding a job increased to 50.7%. In household finance, expected income growth held at 2.9% and spending growth expectations ticked up to 4.9%, with slightly weaker perceptions of current credit access but improved expectations for future credit availability; the expected year-ahead tax change declined to 2.9% and expected government debt growth increased to 9.1%. The survey was fielded from July 1 through July 31, 2025.

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