The Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina has published a nowcast for gross domestic product and short-term inflation indicating moderate economic growth but a materially higher inflation path. It kept its estimate for annual real economic activity growth in the first quarter of 2026 at 2.1%, unchanged from the March 2026 round, and put preliminary second-quarter annual real GDP growth at 2.0%. At the same time, it revised inflation upward, estimating headline inflation in the first half of 2026 at 5.3% and core inflation at 4.5%, with headline inflation rising to 6.1% in the third quarter while core inflation remains at 4.5%. The second-quarter GDP estimate is driven mainly by the services sector, while manufacturing makes a negative contribution because of weak external demand and higher production costs. The inflation revision reflects stronger price pressures from higher global energy prices and their pass-through to domestic prices. Unlike previous June projection rounds, the central bank did not provide a preliminary estimate for the fourth quarter, citing markedly asymmetric risks and considerable uncertainty in the international and domestic environment that create significant risk around the year-end inflation outlook.
Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina2026-06-23
Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina raises short term inflation nowcast and sees GDP growth near 2 percent in the first half of 2026
The Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina now sees annual real GDP growth at 2.1% in the first quarter of 2026 and 2.0% in the second quarter, pointing to continued moderate growth. It sharply revised up inflation, estimating headline inflation at 5.3% in the first half of 2026 and 6.1% in the third quarter, mainly because of higher global energy prices. The bank did not publish a preliminary fourth-quarter estimate because of elevated uncertainty and asymmetric inflation risks.