The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas published its Texas Employment Forecast projecting statewide jobs will rise 1.1 percent in 2026, with an 80 percent confidence band of -0.5 to 2.7 percent. The outlook follows near-flat employment growth of 0.1 percent in 2025, after 1.6 percent growth in 2024. The forecast implies 154,600 jobs added in 2026 and employment reaching 14.4 million by December 2026, based on an average of four models incorporating projected national GDP, oil futures prices, and the Texas and U.S. leading indexes. The report attributes weak 2025 hiring to higher productivity suppressing labor demand, slower immigration constraining supply, and elevated policy uncertainty, with job losses in sectors including energy, manufacturing, government, information, and professional and business services and gains in construction, education and health services, financial activities, and trade and transportation. It also notes December employment grew at a 1.7 percent annualized rate while November employment fell 0.5 percent (revised down), and that the Texas unemployment rate edged up to 4.3 percent in December, with declines in several major metros, no change in El Paso, and Austin posting the fastest metro job growth in 2025 at 0.9 percent while San Antonio saw the steepest decline at 0.6 percent.
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 2026-02-06
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas forecasts Texas employment to grow 1.1 percent in 2026
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas projects Texas employment will grow by 1.1% in 2026, adding 154,600 jobs, following near-flat growth in 2025. The forecast, based on models incorporating national GDP and oil futures, highlights weak 2025 hiring due to higher productivity, slower immigration, and policy uncertainty, with sectoral job losses and gains.