The Board of the National Bank of Ukraine kept the key policy rate at 15.0 percent, citing the need to preserve the appeal of hryvnia assets, anchor inflation expectations and safeguard exchange-rate stability as energy-driven price pressures intensify. After a 100 bp hike to 15.5 percent in March 2025 and a 50 bp cut in January 2026, the rate has been unchanged. The central bank will maintain its managed-float FX regime and an “active presence” in the market, and now projects the policy rate to remain at 15 percent through Q2 2027, with readiness to tighten if inflation risks rise. Headline inflation quickened to 7.9 percent y/y in March and is seen peaking around 9.4 percent by end-2026 before slowing to 6.5 percent in 2027 and reaching the 5 percent target in 2028; real GDP growth slipped to an estimated 0.2 percent y/y in Q1, prompting a downgrade of the 2026 growth forecast to 1.3 percent, though activity is expected to strengthen to 2.8–3.7 percent in 2027–2028. Household term hryvnia deposits continue to expand and demand for local-currency government bonds remains solid. On the external side, more than USD 53 billion in official aid is projected for 2026, supporting international reserves at USD 60–67 billion and underpinning FX-market resilience. Rising global energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict and ongoing Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure dominate the risk backdrop. The central bank reiterated it is prepared to deploy further measures,
National Bank of Ukraine 2026-04-30
National Bank of Ukraine keeps key policy rate unchanged at 15.0 percent
National Bank of Ukraine kept the policy rate at 15 %, citing the need to support hryvnia assets, contain energy-driven inflation (7.9 % y/y in March) and stabilise its managed-float FX regime. It foresees holding 15 % through Q2 2027 yet stands ready to raise rates if price pressures intensify.