The National Bank of Moldova published its Financial Stability Assessment Report for the first quarter of 2025, concluding that the banking sector showed an adequate level of resilience and that current conditions do not signal a build-up of systemic vulnerabilities or excessive systemic risk. The financial stress index stood at 0.43, below the 0.51 stress threshold, while the banking-sector vulnerability indicator was -0.46, below the zero signal threshold. Direct contagion risk remained low, supported by banks’ predominantly foreign exposures, and the interbank network, while relatively concentrated, showed no signs of systemic tension. Exposures to non-bank financial institutions (IFNs) rose for a fourth consecutive quarter, increasing 3.2% quarter-on-quarter to MDL 3,515.6 million (4.0% of total loans), with all such loans classified as performing. Credit standards were unchanged for loans to non-financial corporates and slightly eased for households, alongside higher credit demand; new mortgage lending increased 120.3% year-on-year (down 9.6% quarter-on-quarter) to MDL 2,852.2 million, and new consumer lending rose 35.8% year-on-year (down 0.9% quarter-on-quarter) to MDL 3,591.2 million. Overdue corporate loans fell 9.3% quarter-on-quarter to 1.8% of corporate lending, while overdue household loans rose 13.3% to 1.6% of household lending; new household lending remained concentrated at conservative debt-service and collateralisation levels. The report flagged rapidly rising residential real estate prices in Chișinău, with the RPPI reaching 211.7% (up 18.4% quarter-on-quarter and 35.4% year-on-year), and maintained that credit risk remains the main risk, with real estate lending identified as the most impactful channel for own-funds erosion under a deterioration in loan quality; liquidity buffers were described as robust, with shortfalls appearing only in the most severe, less plausible scenarios.

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