Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s March SCE shows one-year inflation expectations rise to 3.6% and unemployment outlook reaches highest since April 2020

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data released the March 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations, showing households raised short-term inflation expectations while reporting weaker labor market and household finance outlooks. Respondents also became more pessimistic about year-ahead financial conditions and credit access, and stock price expectations fell to their lowest level since June 2022. Median inflation expectations rose 0.5 percentage point to 3.6% one year ahead, were unchanged at 3.0% three years ahead, and edged down to 2.9% five years ahead, while disagreement increased at the one- and three-year horizons. Home price growth expectations fell to 3.0%, and year-ahead expected price growth increased for food (5.2%), medical care (7.9%), and rent (7.2%) but declined for gas (3.2%) and college education (6.7%). On the labor side, expected earnings growth slipped to 2.8%, the mean probability that unemployment will be higher in a year jumped to 44.0%, and the perceived probability of job loss rose to 15.7%, with a slight decline in the perceived probability of finding a new job to 51.1%. Median expected household income growth fell to 2.8% and spending growth expectations declined to 4.9%, while more households reported tighter credit access and a larger share expected their financial situation to worsen, rising to 30.0%. The SCE is a nationally representative, internet-based rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads, and the SCE release calendar was updated for the remainder of 2025.