The National Bank of Hungary published its Commercial Real Estate Market Report, noting improving sentiment and higher investment activity in 2025 H1 but warning that oversupply risks are likely to push vacancy rates higher in Budapest’s office and industrial-logistics segments. Against these persistent commercial real estate (CRE) risks, the central bank will strengthen credit institutions’ shock resilience by introducing a sectoral systemic risk buffer (sSyRB) requirement starting from 1 January 2026. The report highlights diverging market dynamics: the Budapest office vacancy rate fell 1.3 percentage points to 12.8% in 2025 H1, while the industrial-logistics vacancy rate rose 5.5 percentage points to 13.4%, exceeding the office vacancy rate for the first time since 2014. Vacancy rates are expected to keep rising, with the office market projected at 16–17% by end-2026 and industrial-logistics expected to exceed 15% by end-2025. Investment volume in 2025 was around EUR 300 million, up 67% year on year from a low base, and banks disbursed 19% more CRE-backed project loans in 2025 H1 than a year earlier; around 70% of banks’ CRE-backed project loan portfolios had loan-to-value ratios below 50%, and overall exposure was described as moderate in terms of total assets and regulatory capital.
National Bank of Hungary 2025-11-10
National Bank of Hungary will apply a sectoral systemic risk buffer from 1 January 2026 to bolster banks against commercial real estate shocks
The National Bank of Hungary's Commercial Real Estate Market Report indicates improved sentiment and increased investment in 2025 H1, but warns of rising vacancy rates in Budapest's office and industrial-logistics sectors due to oversupply risks. A sectoral systemic risk buffer requirement will be introduced for credit institutions from 1 January 2026. The report notes a 67% year-on-year increase in investment volume to EUR 300 million and a 19% rise in CRE-backed project loans, with moderate overall exposure.