The National Bank of Ukraine reported on decisions from the Financial Stability Council meeting that reviewed systemic risks, raised concerns about a potential 50% tax on bank profits in 2026, and agreed a concept for regulating and launching Ukraine’s virtual assets market. The Council assessed the full-scale war as the key source of systemic risk, including weaker growth linked to damage to energy infrastructure and additional budget needs. On the prospective 2026 tax hike, members agreed the fiscal effect would likely be significantly lower than publicly communicated and highlighted risks including reduced bank capacity to lend and invest, complications for privatizing state-owned banks and meeting resilience assessment-based capitalization plans, constraints on wartime resilience measures such as support for the Power Banking network and efforts against unproductive capital outflows, challenges in meeting EU-aligned capital requirements on time, potential breach of IMF Memorandum commitments, and weaker incentives to bring activity out of the shadow economy. On virtual assets, the Council coordinated positions for further parliamentary work on the draft law, with the proposed approach requiring a clear designation of regulators and allocation of powers and a transition period long enough to build market infrastructure and a supporting secondary rulebook before the bill moves to a second reading.
National Bank of Ukraine 2025-11-05
National Bank of Ukraine Financial Stability Council warns against proposed 50% bank profit tax and endorses virtual assets regulation concept
The National Bank of Ukraine's Financial Stability Council reviewed systemic risks, including a potential 50% tax on bank profits in 2026, which could hinder lending, investment, and compliance with EU and IMF commitments. The Council also advanced plans for regulating Ukraine's virtual assets market, emphasizing the need for clear regulatory roles and a transition period to establish market infrastructure.