National Bank of Ukraine reports June business sentiment stayed positive for a fourth month as BAEI eased to 50.4

The National Bank of Ukraine published its June business activity expectations survey showing businesses maintained a positive outlook for a fourth consecutive month, although sentiment softened from May. The composite business activity expectations index stood at 50.4 in June 2026, down from 52.1 in May 2026 and up from 50.0 in June 2025. Respondents cited stronger external financial aid inflows, gradually lower fuel prices, a stable energy sector, solid consumer demand and seasonal factors as supports, while continued damage to production and energy infrastructure, logistics disruptions, rising labor costs tied to skilled staff shortages, and slightly higher inflation and exchange rate expectations continued to weigh on activity. Construction remained the most optimistic sector for the fourth month in a row, with its index at 54.5, supported by favorable weather and financing for road works and infrastructure restoration. Industry was neutral at 50.0, with firms still expecting stable output and orders but a decline in new export orders. Trading returned to positive territory at 50.6 on lower fuel prices, adequate goods supply and stronger consumer demand, while services stayed slightly positive at 50.2 even as expectations for service volumes and new orders weakened. Across all sectors, firms expected slower growth in input costs and intended to raise selling prices at a slower pace. Labor market conditions remained difficult, with only construction companies planning to increase staffing and the sharpest workforce cuts expected in industry.