The South African Reserve Bank has published its September 2025 Quarterly Bulletin, reporting that real GDP growth accelerated to 0.8% in the second quarter of 2025 from 0.1% in the first quarter, with output expanding across the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors. Growth in real gross domestic expenditure picked up to 1.1% in the quarter, driven mainly by household consumption, while gross fixed capital formation contracted for a third consecutive quarter and the official unemployment rate rose to 33.2%. The Bulletin notes firmer inflation prints in mid-2025, with headline consumer price inflation rising from 2.7% in March 2025 to 3.5% in July before easing to 3.3% in August, largely reflecting higher food prices and a significant increase in water tariffs, while core inflation edged up to 3.1% in August. Externally, the trade surplus narrowed to ZAR 177 billion in the second quarter and the current account deficit widened to ZAR 82.8 billion (1.1% of GDP), while identified net financial account flows shifted to a small outflow of ZAR 0.4 billion. On monetary and markets developments, the Monetary Policy Committee kept the repo rate unchanged at 7.00% at its September 2025 meeting after two 25 basis point cuts, private-sector credit growth rose to 6.5% year on year in July (with company credit driving the acceleration), and the 10-year government bond yield declined to 9.36% on 12 September from 10.99% on 7 April; the domestic debt market also saw the first listed ZARONIA-linked bond issued in May 2025. On public finance, the preliminary non-financial public sector borrowing requirement fell to ZAR 36.4 billion in April–June 2025, while national government recorded a primary surplus of ZAR 19.7 billion in the first quarter of fiscal 2025/26 and gross loan debt increased to ZAR 5,817 billion (78.1% of GDP) as at 30 June 2025.
South African Reserve Bank 2025-09-30
South African Reserve Bank publishes September 2025 Quarterly Bulletin with Q2 2025 GDP growth at 0.8% and current account deficit at 1.1% of GDP
The South African Reserve Bank's September 2025 Quarterly Bulletin reports a rise in real GDP growth to 0.8% in Q2 2025, driven by household consumption, despite a contraction in gross fixed capital formation and unemployment rising to 33.2%. Headline consumer price inflation increased to 3.5% in July before easing to 3.3% in August, influenced by higher food prices and water tariffs. The Monetary Policy Committee maintained the repo rate at 7.00%, while the trade surplus narrowed and the current account deficit widened to ZAR 82.8 billion.