In a new blog post, the European Central Bank examines whether synthetic securitisation increases bank lending and finds only a marginal effect. Its model indicates that a 1% increase in synthetic issuance raises corporate loan growth by about 0.02%, an effect considered too small to have a substantial economic impact. By contrast, dividend payouts rise by 0.07%, three times the increase in lending, suggesting banks use more of the released capital to improve capital efficiency and increase shareholder distributions. Synthetic securitisation volumes have almost tripled since 2021, with outstanding transactions backed by small and medium-sized enterprise loans reaching about EUR 480 billion at the end of 2025. While these transactions can support risk transfer, diversification and capital management, the blog highlights potential increases in leverage and exposure to rollover and counterparty risks. It argues that the prudential framework review should promote demand and genuine risk transfer outside the banking sector rather than focus solely on reducing capital charges, and cautions against overstating securitisation’s contribution to financing Europe’s investment needs.
2026-09-02European Central Bank
European Central Bank blog finds synthetic securitisation delivers marginal lending gains and larger dividend payouts
A European Central Bank blog finds that synthetic securitisation produces only marginal growth in corporate lending while having a larger effect on bank dividends. A 1% increase in issuance is associated with a 0.02% rise in corporate loan growth and a 0.07% increase in dividend payouts. The blog cautions that capital relief may increase leverage and related risks if it is not accompanied by genuine risk transfer.