The National Bank of Denmark has raised its 2026 gross domestic product growth forecast by 2.2 percentage points to 4.0%, reflecting exceptional pharmaceutical production abroad and stronger growth across the wider economy. Growth is projected to moderate to 2.3% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028, supported largely by exports and higher public demand. The bank assesses capacity pressures as broadly neutral, but notes that strong GDP growth has not produced a comparable increase in prosperity because lower pharmaceutical export prices have constrained gross national income. Inflation is forecast at 1.7% in 2026, 2.4% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028. Energy costs linked to the war in the Middle East are expected to lift inflation further over the winter, with risks tilted upward, although underlying price growth should remain low and stable over the longer term. With limited spare capacity and fiscal policy easing significantly, the bank recommends that the government avoid raising demand beyond existing plans in the 2027 Finance Act and exercise caution in using the remaining fiscal space.
2026-09-23National Bank of Denmark
National Bank of Denmark raises 2026 growth forecast to 4 percent and urges fiscal restraint
The National Bank of Denmark raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast by 2.2 percentage points to 4.0%, driven by exceptional pharmaceutical production abroad and broader economic growth. It expects inflation to rise over the winter with risks tilted upward. The bank urged the government not to add demand beyond existing 2027 plans and to preserve fiscal space.