The Central Bank of Nigeria published its April 2025 Economic Report, summarising global and domestic macro-financial developments and providing an outlook for 2025. The report points to continued expansion in domestic business activity (composite PMI at 52.20) alongside a further easing in headline inflation to 23.71% (from 24.23% in March), while the naira depreciated at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) to an average of NGN 1,595.05 per USD and external reserves increased to USD 38.92 billion. Globally, the composite PMI slowed to 50.80 amid trade-related uncertainty, and Nigeria’s reference crude (Bonny Light) averaged USD 69.58 per barrel, down 6.65% from March. In Nigeria, crude oil output (excluding condensates) rose 6.43% to 1.49 million barrels per day, still below the 1.50 million barrels per day OPEC quota. Provisional fiscal data showed gross Federation Account receipts of NGN 2.48 trillion (up 1.56%), with non-oil revenue accounting for 56.30% of inflows; the net distributed balance fell 5.94% to NGN 1.58 trillion. On monetary and financial conditions, reserve money was up 6.31% from end-December 2024 to NGN 34.74 trillion, while broad money (M3) increased 5.07% to NGN 119.11 trillion, attributed wholly to a rise in net foreign assets; total credit by other depository corporations rose 2.05% to NGN 60.31 trillion, while consumer credit contracted 8.23% to NGN 3.68 trillion. Financial soundness indicators showed capital adequacy at 15.55% and liquidity at 55.71%, but the non-performing loans ratio at 5.62% exceeded the 5.00% prudential threshold. Externally, trade surplus increased to USD 1.27 billion (exports USD 4.76 billion; imports USD 3.49 billion), foreign capital inflow fell to USD 0.79 billion, and gross reserves were assessed as covering 8.11 months of imports of goods and services. For 2025, the report maintains a positive domestic growth outlook linked to ongoing reforms in the oil sector and the foreign exchange market, and expects inflation to moderate further subject to the lagged effects of monetary tightening, improved security in food-producing areas, and relative exchange rate stability. It flags inflation risks including further currency depreciation, faster money supply growth and security concerns, and notes potential growth constraints from weaker global oil demand, policy implementation delays, tighter global financial conditions and adverse weather impacting agricultural output.

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