The European Central Bank published an analysis finding that China’s expansion in high-technology manufacturing, industrial self-reliance and price competitiveness is increasing pressure on EU exporters, with the effects varying sharply by country and sector. Manufacturing-intensive economies are most exposed, particularly in machinery, transport equipment and other capital goods, while lower-cost imports, investment links and technological spillovers may benefit some European economies. Between 2019 and 2025, China’s export structure became more similar to that of several EU countries, especially Germany, as Chinese producers moved into advanced and technology-intensive products. At the same time, Chinese imports became less aligned with EU exports, contributing to a broad decline in EU goods exports to China and a loss of EU global export market share in areas where China expanded. Germany and several central European economies face heightened exposure through manufacturing value chains and dependence on critical raw materials, although EU firms have gained market share in the United States and remain competitive in some higher-value-added sectors. The analysis identifies supply chain diversification, stronger domestic industrial capacity and innovation as potential responses for the most exposed economies. It focuses on goods trade and does not capture European strengths in services or the potential benefits of investment and technology transfers from deeper economic links with China.
2026-09-22European Central Bank
European Central Bank finds China’s industrial rise is unevenly intensifying pressure on EU exporters
The European Central Bank found that China’s industrial rise is intensifying competition for EU exporters while reducing Chinese reliance on European industrial imports. Manufacturing-intensive economies, particularly Germany and several central European countries, face the greatest exposure in machinery, transport equipment and critical raw material-dependent sectors. Supply chain diversification, domestic industrial capacity and innovation could help the most exposed economies adapt.