National Bank of Belgium study finds Belgium’s start-ups struggle to scale into sustained job creation

The National Bank of Belgium published research finding that Belgium generates many new firms but converts too few into fast-growing businesses that drive meaningful employment growth, leaving job creation from “gazelles” limited compared with neighbouring countries. The study frames the core challenge as scale-up capacity rather than the volume of firm creation. The analysis shows business dynamism indicators declined from around 2000 to the mid-2010s before a tentative rebound from 2020, driven mainly by services and by established firms rather than a new wave of start-ups, with manufacturing remaining sluggish. It links weak scale-up outcomes to global forces that reinforce “superstar” firms and to local frictions including a tightly regulated labour market and high wage costs that slow worker reallocation, while a high share of firms without employees inflates entry figures without adding much to aggregate growth unless they expand. The study also highlights that Belgium’s employer social security contribution exemption for a first employee has been popular but costly and has largely increased single-employee firms without sustained job creation, cautioning that size-linked thresholds and subsidies can discourage growth; it points instead to targeting support toward firms that are already growing, by easing hiring risks, improving access to growth finance, and strengthening management and export capabilities.