The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has published a working paper examining how rising official and private demand, technological change and geopolitical fragmentation could reshape gold markets, payment systems and illicit financial flows. It presents four scenarios for the next five to 10 years, covering more liquid digital gold markets, resource nationalism among producer countries, a bifurcation between responsibly sourced and illicit gold, and a monetary system in which physical and tokenised precious metals play a larger role. The scenarios are not predictions and may overlap. The paper finds that central bank demand, particularly from emerging economies, has become more closely aligned with gold prices since 2022 and appears to have contributed most to the recent rise in real prices. Digitalisation could broaden access and enable faster, fractional trading, but gold collateralised stablecoins remain a small and concentrated market exposed to operational, redemption and peg risks. Greater use of gold could also increase vulnerabilities linked to market volatility, responsible sourcing and the movement of wealth outside conventional banking channels. Illicit actors are already exploiting gold throughout the supply chain, including through illegal mining, falsified sourcing documents, smuggling, gold concentrates and digital assets. The OECD identifies major gaps in data on production, trade and illicit networks that constrain policy preparation. It also cautions that poorly designed crackdowns on artisanal and small scale mining, which accounts for about 20% of global gold production and supports millions of livelihoods, could increase miners’ exposure to criminal networks rather than address underlying risks.
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development maps four gold futures amid stronger official demand, tokenisation and illicit finance risks
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has outlined four possible futures for gold, driven by stronger central bank demand, digitalisation, resource nationalism and illicit finance. It finds that official demand has become a key influence on prices, while tokenised gold could expand access but introduces operational and redemption risks. Data gaps and poorly targeted action against artisanal mining could impede efforts to combat illicit flows and promote responsible sourcing.