In a lecture in Tallinn, European Central Bank Vice-President Luis de Guindos said the war in the Middle East has made the euro area’s growth and inflation outlook significantly more uncertain, with higher energy prices posing upside risks to inflation and weighing on activity. He noted that ECB staff now expect euro area growth to drop below 1% this year, averaging 0.9%, and inflation to average 2.6% before converging back to the 2% target, while inflation has been around the target for about a year and longer-term expectations remain anchored. Against that backdrop, he reiterated that the Governing Council has kept the three key ECB interest rates unchanged and will continue to set policy on a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting basis. De Guindos highlighted that roughly 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas transits the Strait of Hormuz and said shipping is now virtually at a standstill, creating a supply shock whose impact will depend on the conflict’s duration and spread. Spillovers to the euro area financial sector have so far remained contained, reflecting limited direct bank exposures, strong profitability and capital and liquidity buffers, and effective margin management by EU market infrastructures, including energy-focused central counterparties, but he warned that high asset valuations and existing vulnerabilities could still trigger a sharp repricing of risk and amplify non-bank financial stress. He also set out four longer-term priorities for strengthening Europe’s resilience: completing the Single Market, advancing a genuine savings and investments union supported by harmonised frameworks and more integrated supervision, securing technological sovereignty including through a digital euro to reduce reliance on non-European payment intermediaries, and simplifying bank regulation, supervision and reporting while preserving post-crisis resilience.
European Central Bank 2026-03-26
European Central Bank vice-president de Guindos says Middle East war energy shock lowers growth outlook to 0.9% and lifts inflation forecast to 2.6%
European Central Bank Vice-President Luis de Guindos stated that the Middle East conflict has increased uncertainty in the euro area's growth and inflation outlook, with energy prices posing upside risks to inflation. ECB staff project euro area growth to average 0.9% this year, with inflation at 2.6% before returning to the 2% target. De Guindos emphasized a data-dependent policy approach and outlined priorities for enhancing Europe's resilience, including completing the Single Market and advancing a savings and investments union.