The International Monetary Fund’s Executive Board concluded its Article IV consultation with Nigeria, finding that reforms over the past three years have improved macroeconomic stability and lifted external buffers, but that conditions remain difficult, with poverty at 63 percent under the national poverty line and an estimated 27 million people facing food insecurity in fall 2025. Against renewed inflation pressure from higher global fuel and food prices, Directors called for a neutral fiscal stance in 2026 that protects priority and social spending, and said the Central Bank of Nigeria should keep monetary policy tight and data dependent until disinflation is entrenched and inflation expectations are anchored. Growth is estimated at 4.0 percent in 2025 and projected at 4.1 percent in 2026. Inflation rose to 15.4 percent year on year in March 2026 after more than a year of decline, while gross international reserves increased to USD 46 billion at end-2025 from USD 40 billion at end-2024 and net international reserves to USD 35 billion from USD 23 billion. The overall deficit of the consolidated government is estimated at 4.4 percent of GDP in 2025 as oil revenues fell short of budget expectations. Directors welcomed recent tax reforms but raised concerns about off-budget spending and complex financing instruments, urging faster improvements to the budget process, public financial management, fiscal reporting, transparency and accountability. The Board also backed the flexible exchange rate regime, while urging lower reliance on portfolio flows with rollover risk and the eventual removal of remaining exchange restrictions, capital flow management measures and multiple currency practices as conditions permit. In the financial sector, Directors said banks remain resilient after recapitalization but called for vigilance on rising non-performing loans and the sovereign-bank nexus, faster Basel III implementation including the countercyclical capital buffer and the liquidity coverage ratio, and bringing stablecoin and other crypto-asset activities into the regulatory perimeter. The next Article IV consultation is expected on the standard 12-month cycle.
International Monetary Fund2026-04-28
International Monetary Fund concludes Nigeria Article IV consultation and urges neutral fiscal stance and tight monetary policy
The IMF Executive Board’s Article IV consultation with Nigeria noted improved macroeconomic stability and higher external buffers but persistent hardship, with 63 percent of the population below the national poverty line and widespread food insecurity. Directors recommended a neutral fiscal stance in 2026 that protects priority and social spending, tight data‑dependent monetary policy until disinflation is entrenched, and reforms to strengthen budget processes, public financial management, fiscal transparency and accountability. They supported the flexible exchange rate regime, urged reduced reliance on portfolio flows, faster Basel III implementation, closer monitoring of bank risks, and bringing stablecoin and other crypto‑asset activities into regulation.