National Bank of Serbia Holds Key Policy Rate at 5.75%

The National Bank of Serbia (NBS) kept its key policy rate at 5.75% on 09 July 2026, and left the deposit and lending facility rates unchanged at 4.5% and 7.0%, saying the decision reflected actual and expected inflation and risks from the international environment. Year-on-year inflation stayed within the 3.0±1.5% target tolerance band at 3.5% in May, with higher global oil prices lifting domestic fuel prices, partly offset by government measures, while food prices continued to decline and core inflation remained relatively stable around the upper bound of the headline band. The NBS said its May projection envisages inflation slowing by September, then hovering around the upper bound, with a temporary overshoot possible by end-2026 or early 2027 before returning within the target band by mid-2027 if the recent energy shock proves temporary and oil prices remain around current lower levels. On activity, the central bank said developments since the start of the year were more favourable than expected, with real GDP growth at 3.2% year on year in the first quarter and lending to corporates and households up 16.4% in May, while it continues to maintain relative exchange-rate stability. The Board cited the Middle East conflict, commodity-price volatility and moves by leading central banks as key external risks, and said it will remain cautious and data dependent, adding that it will use all available instruments if higher oil prices generate stronger second-round effects through