The South African Reserve Bank published its composite business cycle indicators, showing the composite leading indicator increased by 0.4% in October 2025, while the coincident and lagging indicators rose by 0.1% and 0.8% respectively in September 2025. The October rise in the leading indicator reflected increases in six of the 10 available component series, led by gains in South Africa’s US-dollar export commodity price index and an improvement in the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index. The largest drags were a deceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate of real M1 and a narrowing of the interest rate spread between 10-year government bonds and 91-day Treasury bills; additional negative contributions came from weaker new passenger vehicle sales and a softer leading indicator for major trading-partner countries. The coincident indicator’s September increase was driven by higher industrial production and formal non-agricultural employment. The indicators are revised continuously as underlying component series are revised. The next release is scheduled for 27 January 2026 at 09:00.
South African Reserve Bank 2025-12-17
South African Reserve Bank reports 0.4% October rise in the composite leading business cycle indicator
The South African Reserve Bank reported a 0.4% increase in the composite leading indicator for October 2025, with gains in export commodity prices and business confidence. The coincident indicator rose by 0.1% in September, driven by industrial production and employment, while the lagging indicator increased by 0.8%. The indicators are subject to continuous revision.