The National Bank of Moldova published its Financial Stability Assessment Report for the third quarter of 2025, concluding that the banking sector has an adequate level of resilience and that there are no signs of an excessive build-up of systemic risk. The financial stress index was 0.36, below the stress threshold of 0.52, and the banking sector vulnerability level stood at -0.47, below the zero signal threshold. Direct contagion risk was assessed as low, reflecting that most interbank placements are held with banks abroad, and no cases of heightened sectoral concentration in credit were identified. Banks’ exposure to non-bank financial institutions increased by MDL 204.2 million (5.5%) from Q2 2025 to MDL 3,757.1 million, equal to 3.8% of total bank portfolios. The bank lending survey indicated a slight tightening of credit standards for non-financial corporates and a slight easing for households, alongside a small fall in corporate loan demand and an increase in household demand. New mortgage lending rose by 40.8% year on year and 4.1% quarter on quarter to MDL 2,914.8 million, while new consumer lending increased by 17.0% year on year and 5.0% quarter on quarter to MDL 4,625.4 million. Overdue loans (30+ days past due) to legal entities fell by 14.2% to MDL 814.0 million, while overdue loans to individuals rose by 7.5% to MDL 590.5 million, with overdue shares of 1.5% for corporates and 1.4% for households. The non-performing loan ratio for household lending increased to 4.2% under national prudential requirements, driven by a 1.6 percentage point rise in non-performing residential mortgage loans following the reclassification of some borrowers under regulations in force on qualitative credit criteria. Household borrower metrics remained prudent, with 72.4% of new loans showing a debt service-to-income ratio (RSDV) below 40%, 91.4% below 55%, and 96.9% a loan-to-collateral ratio (RCG) below 80%. Residential property prices continued to rise at a more moderate pace, with the residential property price index at 223.1%, up 0.5% quarter on quarter and 33.8% year on year. Credit risk remained the main risk for banks, and sensitivity analysis pointed to loans for purchasing or constructing real estate as having the greatest potential impact on own funds if NPLs increase, while liquidity risk was mitigated by solid liquid-asset buffers.
National Bank of Moldova 2025-12-22
National Bank of Moldova reports adequate banking sector resilience and low systemic risk in Q3 2025 stability assessment
The National Bank of Moldova's Financial Stability Assessment Report for Q3 2025 indicates the banking sector's resilience with no excessive systemic risk build-up. The financial stress index was 0.36, below the 0.52 threshold, and the vulnerability level was -0.47, below zero. Credit risk remains the primary concern, particularly in real estate loans, though liquidity risk is mitigated by strong liquid-asset buffers.