European Central Bank research uses the Consumer Expectations Survey to track euro area rents and shows growth easing after the 2023 peak

The European Central Bank published an Economic Bulletin analysis using its Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) to monitor euro area rental market developments and build a CES-based rent expenditure growth indicator. The tracker suggests rent growth peaked above 5% in 2023, then eased, but remained above 3% in the third quarter of 2024, providing a more timely and comparable read on rents than harmonised data typically allow. CES data point to large cross-country and household differences in renting and rent burdens. Renters represent around 28% of households on average, with the share ranging from 15% in Italy to almost 50% in Germany and Austria, and renting is most prevalent in the lowest income group. Nominal rents are highest in Ireland, Austria and Belgium, while the rent-to-income ratio is highest in Ireland, followed by Greece and Finland, and lowest in Germany. Reported year-on-year rent growth over the last 12 months exceeded 7% in Ireland and Portugal but was below 3% in the Netherlands, Germany and Italy; in the third quarter of 2024, Portugal recorded the highest readings, while Ireland and Austria remained consistently high. Higher rent growth per square metre is more associated with new rental contracts, with recent movers (about 15% of renters) contributing around one-third of overall rent growth, and recent rent growth has been higher in cities and for smaller dwellings. Future work is set to further validate the CES-based indicator, including cross-validation with external sources and deeper analysis of quality adjustments using factors such as dwelling age, location and renovation.