The Bank of Central African States published an assessment showing that CEMAC inflation remained below the 3% community threshold in June 2026 but faced renewed pressure from energy, food and freight costs. Annual average inflation held at 1.4%, down from 3.5% in June 2025, while year over year inflation rose to 2.3% from 1.0% in March 2026. The bank projected year over year inflation of 3.5% for September 2026, although annual average inflation was expected to remain at 1.7%. Food, transport and housing and energy costs were the main projected drivers. Domestic inflation remained the largest component, supported by private consumption and income from the gold and cocoa sectors. Imported inflation also accelerated as higher energy prices, an appreciating Nigerian naira and disruption linked to the Middle East conflict raised the cost of fuel, equipment and freight. Better agricultural output in Cameroon and Chad partly offset these pressures. Under the central scenario, annual average inflation is projected at 2.0% in 2026, 2.2% in 2027, 2.9% in 2028 and 2.2% in 2029, with risks tilted upward in 2027. The assessment also highlighted fiscal and external risks from elevated refining margins and fuel subsidies. CEMAC subsidies and transfers are projected to reach a record XAF 3,388.3 billion in 2026, or 4.03% of gross domestic product. The bank recommended gradually replacing generalized fuel subsidies with targeted transfers, transparent and predictable price adjustments, coordinated regional procurement, and investment in regional refining and energy diversification.

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