The National Bank of Denmark published an analysis finding that Danish households’ inflation expectations appear broadly anchored, with expectations three years ahead remaining relatively stable despite increases at shorter horizons. Evidence from its monthly household expectations survey also shows that households update their views in response to economic developments and adjust planned consumption and saving as inflation expectations change. Expectations three years ahead have remained just below 3%, with less volatility than expectations one year ahead and broadly similar movements to those in the euro area. Shorter horizon expectations rose around April 2025, when the United States announced widespread tariffs, and from March 2026, following the outbreak of war in the Middle East and a surge in energy prices. Repeat respondents changed their expectations one year ahead by more than twice as much as their expectations three years ahead, supporting the assessment that temporary shocks are not fully feeding into medium term expectations. Households’ perceived inflation averaged about 2 percentage points above actual inflation, although changes broadly tracked inflation developments. Survey wording and individual biases mean differences in reported levels require caution. The analysis estimates that, holding interest rate expectations constant, a 1 percentage point increase in expected inflation is associated with about 0.4 percentage points lower planned real consumption growth over the coming year, consistent with bringing spending forward or reducing future spending. The survey began in October 2024 and collects around 1,100 responses monthly. Aggregate results will be published monthly from October 2026, with data available back to October 2024.
National Bank of Denmark finds Danish household inflation expectations broadly anchored
The National Bank of Denmark published analysis finding that Danish households’ inflation expectations appear broadly anchored, with expectations three years ahead remaining just below 3% and responding less to shocks than shorter horizon expectations. The survey also links higher expected inflation to lower planned real consumption growth, consistent with shifting spending toward the present. Monthly publication of aggregate survey results begins in October 2026, with data available back to October 2024.