The Bank of Finland has published its 2026–2028 forecast for the Finnish economy, projecting a gradual recovery but warning that an energy crisis linked to the Middle East conflict will slow growth and raise inflation in the near term. Gross domestic product is expected to grow by 0.7% in 2026, 1.2% in 2027 and 1.4% in 2028. Inflation is forecast at 2.4% in 2026 as energy prices rise, before falling to 1.6% in 2027 and edging up to 1.8% in 2028. The recovery is expected to be supported by export growth, higher investment and a gradual pickup in private consumption, helped by earnings growth and improving employment. Private investment is set to benefit particularly from data centres, the green transition and the defence industry, while residential construction is expected to recover only slowly and remain below earlier peak housing volumes. The labour market remains weak, with unemployment declining only gradually to 9.0% by the end of the forecast period, and public finances staying significantly in deficit as general government debt rises to almost 92% of GDP in 2026 and to a little under 97% in 2028. Uncertainty remains high, especially around the Middle East situation and United States trade policy, although growth could be stronger if geopolitical conditions improve quickly.
Bank of Finland2026-06-12
Bank of Finland forecasts gradual economic recovery through 2028 as Middle East energy shock lifts 2026 inflation to 2.4%
The Bank of Finland expects Finland's economy to recover gradually through 2028, with GDP growth rising from 0.7% in 2026 to 1.4% in 2028. It sees the Middle East-driven energy shock pushing inflation up to 2.4% in 2026 before easing, while unemployment falls slowly and public debt continues to increase.