European Central Bank publishes November Consumer Expectations Survey showing steady inflation expectations and a slightly weaker growth outlook

The European Central Bank released its Consumer Expectations Survey results for November 2025, showing unchanged median inflation perceptions and expectations across all reported horizons, alongside softer expectations for spending and housing and a slightly more negative view on near-term economic growth. Median perceived inflation over the prior 12 months held at 3.1% for a tenth consecutive month, while median inflation expectations were unchanged at 2.8% for the next 12 months, 2.5% three years ahead and 2.2% five years ahead. Expected nominal income growth over the next 12 months stayed at 1.2%, but expected spending growth eased to 3.4% from 3.5% in October, even as perceived spending growth rose to 5.0% from 4.9%. Expected economic growth for the next 12 months declined to -1.3% from -1.1%, while the expected unemployment rate 12 months ahead edged down to 10.9% from 11.0%; consumers perceived current unemployment at 10.4%. In housing, expected home price growth over the next 12 months fell to 3.4% from 3.5% and expected mortgage interest rates declined to 4.6% from 4.7%; the net share reporting tightening credit access over the past 12 months decreased, while expectations of tighter credit over the next 12 months were unchanged. The ECB scheduled the next release of Consumer Expectations Survey results, covering December, for 30 January 2026.