Federal Reserve Bank of New York releases June consumer survey showing higher near and medium term inflation expectations and improved labor market outlook

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released its June 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations, showing that households raised their inflation expectations over the one-year and three-year horizons while leaving five-year expectations unchanged. Median expected inflation rose to 3.7% for one year ahead and 3.3% for three years ahead, while the five-year measure held at 3.0%. The survey also pointed to a firmer labor market outlook, with respondents seeing lower risks of job loss and unemployment and a better chance of finding work, while spending expectations were unchanged and views of household finances improved even as expectations for future credit access weakened slightly. Inflation uncertainty declined across all horizons. Within category-level price expectations, expected gas price growth fell to 1.5%, its lowest level since August 2022, while expected increases for medical care and rent rose to 9.4% and 8.3%; expectations fell for food and college costs. On labor market conditions, expected earnings growth edged up to 2.8%, the perceived probability of losing a job fell to 14.1%, the probability of finding a job after losing one rose to 44.9%, and the probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher in one year declined to 41.7%. In household finance, expected income growth increased to 3.0%, nominal spending growth stayed at 5.0%, the perceived chance of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months fell to 10.8%, and the perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher in 12 months rose to 40.9%, the highest since April 2021.