The Central Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) lowered the Selic rate by 25 bp to 14.50 % per annum, judging that a measured easing is compatible with its strategy to return inflation to target even as domestic growth moderates and the labour market stays resilient while headline and underlying inflation have recently risen further above the goal. After raising the policy rate to 15.00 % in June 2025 and holding it until a first 25 bp cut in March 2026, Copom has now delivered a second consecutive reduction. In its reference scenario the Committee projects IPCA inflation at 4.6 % for 2026 and 3.5 % in 2027 Q4, while Focus survey expectations remain elevated at 4.9 % for 2026 and 4.0 % for 2027. Copom highlights unusually high two-sided risks, with upside pressures from de-anchored expectations, resilient services prices and potential currency depreciation, offset by possible sharper-than-expected domestic or global slowdowns and lower commodity prices; it continues to track the fiscal stance and its effect on financial assets. The global outlook is clouded by Middle East conflicts that have tightened financial conditions and increased asset and commodity-price volatility. The Committee reiterates a cautious, data-dependent approach, signalling that the pace and extent of further rate calibration will hinge on new information about the conflicts and their impact on the inflation path.
Central Bank of Brazil 2026-04-29
Central Bank of Brazil cuts Selic rate by 25 bp to 14.50 % per annum
Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee cut the Selic rate by 25 bp to 14.50 % p.a., its second straight reduction after last year’s peak at 15 %. Copom cites persistent above-target inflation, elevated two-sided risks and geopolitical uncertainty, and stresses that any further easing will be cautious and data-dependent.