The Central Bank of Russia has published the fourth 2025 issue of the scholarly Russian Journal of Money and Finance, featuring research on how monetary policy affects sectoral debt burdens, a new method for estimating Russia’s output gap, and macroeconomic forecasting approaches that use sentiment measures derived from central bank publications. One study finds that an increase in the key rate has the strongest immediate effect on debt burden in mining and quarrying, while in the medium term most industries show no change in debt burden levels following a monetary policy shock. Another paper proposes an output gap estimation approach based on 14 macroeconomic and financial variables, with results for 2005–2022 indicating that external demand was the key driver in 2008–2009 and 2020, while internal demand was decisive in 2022. A third contribution integrates sentiment indices from central bank communications into ensemble and neural network models, concluding that traditional methods perform better for nowcasting Russia’s GDP, while combining models with sentiment measures improves inflation forecast quality. The journal issue (No. 4, 2025) is available on the publication’s website.
Central Bank of Russia 2025-12-26
Central Bank of Russia releases Russian Journal of Money and Finance issue on key rate effects on debt burdens and forecasts from central bank publications
The Central Bank of Russia's latest Russian Journal of Money and Finance explores the impact of monetary policy on sectoral debt, a new output gap estimation method, and macroeconomic forecasting using sentiment measures. Key findings include the immediate effect of rate hikes on mining debt, the role of external demand in past economic shifts, and improved inflation forecasts through sentiment integration.