The National Bank of Georgia’s Monetary Policy Committee held the monetary policy rate at 8.25%, maintaining a moderately tight stance as supply-side inflation pressures persist despite moderate effects on inflation expectations. The rate had been held at 8% before a 25-basis-point increase in May and has remained at 8.25% since. Headline inflation was 5.6% in August, driven largely by higher energy prices and intensifying international food-price pressures, while average inflation is projected at around 5.2% in 2026 before gradually converging to the 3% target over the medium term. Economic growth remained strong, averaging 7.9% in the first seven months, with high-productivity sectors partly offsetting demand-side inflation pressures. Renewed Middle East tensions have increased uncertainty over energy supplies and international price volatility, raising the risk that prolonged shocks generate second-round effects. The committee signalled moderate further rate increases if supply shocks lift inflation expectations, followed by gradual policy normalization once the inflationary shock dissipates.