The Central Bank of Slovenia published its latest macroeconomic projections, forecasting moderate economic growth of 1.9 per cent in 2026 and 2.2 per cent in both 2027 and 2028, with the recovery slowed by heightened geopolitical uncertainty and stronger inflationary pressures. Inflation is projected to average 3.6 per cent this year before gradually declining over the following two years as energy prices and domestic cost pressures ease. Growth this year is expected to rely mainly on domestic consumption, supported by a still-robust labour market and further gains in real disposable household income, while a stronger recovery remains constrained by unfavourable terms of trade and rising labour costs. Employment growth is projected to stay modest at 0.4 per cent in 2026 and 0.2 per cent in 2027 and 2028, with unemployment averaging 3.9 per cent and wage growth remaining strong at 7.2 per cent this year before moderating to 4.8 per cent and 4.4 per cent. The projections place risks to growth on the downside and risks to inflation on the upside, citing the potential for prolonged Middle East tensions to lift energy and commodity prices, disrupt supply chains and weaken investment and exports. Fiscal risks are also rising, with the government deficit expected to approach 3 per cent this year and exceed that level over the rest of the projection horizon, which could stop further declines in the debt-to-GDP ratio and reduce room to respond to shocks.
Central Bank of Slovenia2026-06-16
Central Bank of Slovenia projects 1.9 per cent growth and 3.6 per cent inflation in 2026 amid geopolitical and fiscal risks
The Central Bank of Slovenia expects economic growth of 1.9 per cent in 2026 and 2.2 per cent in 2027 and 2028, while inflation is projected at 3.6 per cent this year before easing. Domestic consumption is expected to support growth, but higher labour costs, energy prices, geopolitical uncertainty and a weaker fiscal position are increasing downside risks to growth and upside risks to inflation.