The Central Bank of the Philippines published the results of its Q4 2025 Business Expectation Survey, showing higher business optimism in the quarter as the overall business confidence index rose to 29.7% from 23.2% in the previous quarter. A positive index indicates more respondents were optimistic than pessimistic, and the survey is positioned as a key input to the central bank’s economic surveillance and monetary policy work. Firms attributed stronger sentiment mainly to expected holiday-related consumer spending, alongside higher productivity and operational efficiency, new product and service rollouts, and a favorable inflation environment. Confidence for the next quarter and the next 12 months remained positive but eased, with the quarter-ahead index falling to 23.7% from 49.5% and the year-ahead index to 40.4% from 48.1%; respondents cited the lingering effects of recent natural calamities and the impact of corruption allegations on investor and business sentiment. For a fifth consecutive quarter, respondents expected inflation over the next 12 months to remain within the National Government’s target range. The survey was conducted from 7 October to 13 November 2025 and covered 1,521 firms nationwide; the overall response rate was 57.2%, down from 61.0% in Q3 2025.
Central Bank of the Philippines 2025-12-19
Central Bank of the Philippines reports Q4 2025 business confidence index rises to 29.7% in Business Expectation Survey
The Central Bank of the Philippines' Q4 2025 Business Expectation Survey shows increased business optimism, with the confidence index rising to 29.7% from 23.2% in the previous quarter. Firms cited expected holiday spending, productivity gains, and a favorable inflation environment as key factors. However, confidence for the next quarter and year eased due to natural calamities and corruption concerns, with inflation expectations remaining within the government's target range.