The European Central Bank published a working paper assessing climate policy 10 years after the Paris Agreement. It finds that global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise despite slower growth, leaving implementation insufficient to meet the agreement’s temperature goals as physical risks, macro-financial losses and the threat of irreversible tipping points increase. The paper calls for a systemic, precautionary and adaptive policy framework that acts before climate risks can be quantified with certainty or the window for effective intervention closes. Drawing on Network for Greening the Financial System scenarios, the paper argues that early, orderly action can insure against severe outcomes, while delayed or fragmented action compounds physical, transition and fiscal risks. It treats mitigation, adaptation and restoration as complementary rather than interchangeable, warning that postponing mitigation raises future adaptation and recovery costs. Proposed levers include predictable carbon pricing, faster renewable energy and infrastructure deployment, stronger climate finance and disclosures, fossil-fuel supply measures and scalable carbon management, supported by policies that address distributional effects and maintain public acceptance.
European Central Bank2026-07-28
European Central Bank working paper calls for precautionary climate policy as Paris implementation falls short
A European Central Bank working paper finds that implementation of the Paris Agreement remains insufficient as emissions and climate risks continue to rise. It advocates precautionary and adaptive policies combining mitigation, adaptation and restoration before tipping points narrow the scope for effective action. Key levers include carbon pricing, renewable infrastructure, climate finance, disclosures and carbon management.