In a speech, Sweden's Riksbank Deputy Governor Per Jansson argued that central banks should continue to communicate what they believe will happen in the future to keep monetary policy effective and predictable, particularly in more turbulent conditions. He linked credible forward guidance to central bank independence, warning that communication should not be constrained by concerns about political reactions. Jansson noted that several central banks have recently toned down forward guidance in favour of “data dependent” and “meeting by meeting” messaging, citing poor experiences around the 2021–2022 inflation upswing and the increased difficulty of forecasting amid repeated shocks. He described the Riksbank’s long-standing practice of publishing a policy-rate forecast (since 2007) and highlighted a change introduced from the March 2024 Monetary Policy Report that focuses the Executive Board’s communicated assessment on the policy rate over the coming three quarters, while treating the longer three-year path more as an assumption to complete the forecast. He also pointed to the routine publication of quantified alternative scenarios for inflation, GDP and the policy rate in each Monetary Policy Report since April 2023, and cautioned that withholding forecasts or scenarios because they could be politically inconvenient would amount to a de facto loss of independence.
Riksbank 2026-02-13
Sweden's Riksbank Deputy Governor Jansson urges continued forward guidance and warns political pressure could curb monetary policy transparency
Riksbank Deputy Governor Per Jansson stressed the importance of central banks maintaining forward guidance for effective monetary policy, especially in turbulence. He noted a shift towards "data dependent" messaging due to forecasting challenges amid recent shocks. Jansson highlighted the Riksbank's practice of publishing policy-rate forecasts and alternative scenarios, warning that withholding forecasts for political reasons could undermine central bank independence.