The Banking Commission of the Central African Republic published a note on inflation in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community, CEMAC, showing that regional inflation remained below the community norm of 3 percent at the end of March 2026. Annual average inflation fell to 1.4 percent from 4.0 percent a year earlier and 2.0 percent in December 2025, while year-on-year inflation stood at 1.0 percent versus 3.1 percent a year earlier. The note attributes the deceleration mainly to lower energy and global food prices, favorable exchange rate effects on some imports, good agricultural campaigns in Cameroon and Chad, anti-cost-of-living measures and continued pump price freezes in most CEMAC countries, partly offset by higher import costs from Nigeria, firm private consumption and logistics disruptions at the Port of Douala. Underlying price pressures also eased, with core inflation falling to 1.5 percent in annual average terms and 0.9 percent year on year by March 2026. Local inflation remained the main driver of headline inflation, although both local and imported inflation slowed. Cameroon remained the largest positive contributor to regional inflation, while Chad continued to reduce it. For the near term, the note projects inflation to stabilize in annual average terms at 1.4 percent by the end of June 2026, while year-on-year inflation rises to 2.6 percent. Over the medium term, the outlook has been revised slightly upward from the December 2025 forecast but still remains broadly below the 3 percent regional norm, at around 2.4 percent in 2026, 3.0 percent in 2027 and 2.7 percent in 2028. The main risk identified is the Middle East conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which are expected to raise oil, freight, fertilizer and food costs, although the note says the inflation impact in CEMAC should emerge with a lag of three to 18 months rather than fully in the second quarter of 2026.

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