The South African Reserve Bank published its latest composite business cycle indicators, showing the composite leading indicator fell by 1.8% in December 2024, the coincident indicator fell by 0.1% in November 2024, and the lagging indicator rose by 0.3% in November 2024. The decline in the leading indicator reflected decreases in five of seven available components, with the largest negative contributions coming from a deceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate in new passenger vehicle sales and a fall in residential building plans approved. The only positive contribution came from an acceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate in job advertisement space, while real M1 was unchanged. The coincident indicator’s decline was driven by lower real wholesale, retail and motor trade sales, a weaker industrial production index, and reduced utilisation of manufacturing production capacity. The next release is scheduled for 25 March 2025 at 09:00.
South African Reserve Bank 2025-02-25
South African Reserve Bank reports December 2024 fall in the composite leading business cycle indicator
The South African Reserve Bank reported a 1.8% decline in the composite leading indicator for December 2024, with significant negative contributions from reduced vehicle sales growth and fewer residential building plans approved. The coincident indicator fell by 0.1% in November 2024, influenced by lower trade sales and industrial production, while the lagging indicator rose by 0.3%.