National Bank of Belgium finds first quarter activity picked up but businesses remain cautious on second quarter growth

The National Bank of Belgium’s latest Business Echo, based on interviews with business leaders, indicates that Belgian economic activity strengthened in the first quarter of 2026 after near stagnation in the final quarter of 2025. Firms nevertheless gave a cautious view for the second quarter, citing fragile and uneven demand, renewed uncertainty and sharply higher energy prices, while generally not expecting an abrupt fall in activity. Hiring has slowed and labour shortages have become more concentrated in technical and specialised roles, including engineers, operators, maintenance staff and workers with digital or AI-related skills. Firms also reported renewed pressure from energy, transport and sometimes financing costs, with concerns about a possible further wage cost shock, while weak demand and strong competition are limiting their ability to raise prices. Investment plans remain in place but are focused on automation, digitalisation, AI, maintenance and other efficiency measures rather than broad capacity expansion. Across sectors, manufacturing remains structurally under pressure but pharmaceutical and defence-related activity is more resilient, construction and residential new builds stay subdued, logistics is broadly stable, and ICT-related business services continue to outperform other service segments.