Federal Reserve Bank of New York releases October 2025 consumer expectations survey showing one-year inflation expectations fall to 3.2%

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data published the October 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations, indicating that households’ short-term inflation expectations declined while medium- and longer-term expectations were unchanged. Labor market expectations were mixed, with higher unemployment and weaker job-finding expectations alongside a slight improvement in perceived job-loss risk. Credit availability perceptions improved, while respondents became somewhat less optimistic about their household financial situation. Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations fell 0.2 percentage point to 3.2%, and three- and five-year-ahead expectations held at 3.0%, with disagreement across respondents rising at all horizons. Home price growth expectations stayed at 3.0% for a fifth consecutive month; year-ahead gas and food price expectations declined to 3.5% and 5.7%, while expectations rose for college education (8.2%), medical care (9.4%, highest since February 2023), and rent (7.2%). On the labor side, median earnings growth expectations increased to 2.6%, mean unemployment expectations rose to 42.5%, the perceived probability of job loss fell to 14.0%, and the perceived probability of finding a new job if displaced dropped to 46.8%. Median expected household income growth edged down to 2.8% and spending growth expectations rose to 4.8%; the perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment increased to 13.1%, and the probability that stock prices will be higher in 12 months fell to 38.9%. The survey was fielded from October 1 through October 31, 2025.