De Nederlandsche Bank study estimates 8%–9% output hit to Dutch chemicals and basic metals from higher energy, grid and carbon costs

De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) published a study on how recent increases in energy prices, power grid costs and carbon taxation affect output in Dutch energy-intensive industries, concluding that higher energy prices have the largest impact and that exposure varies widely across sectors. Energy-intensive industries generated 7% of value added in the Netherlands in 2023, and DNB estimates that the combined effect of higher energy, grid and emissions costs reduces output by around 8% in chemicals and 9% in basic metals, while paper production appears to benefit slightly due to higher energy efficiency and, in some cases, surplus free allowances under the European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). The study notes that European energy prices remain elevated relative to competitors, with gas futures implying EUR 39/MWh in the Netherlands by end-2025 versus EUR 11/MWh in the United States, and an expected ETS allowance price of EUR 67 in 2025. A stress scenario based on a substantial carbon tax increase highlights large differences within sectors, with larger firms, firms outside the five concentrated industrial clusters and firms with a foreign parent company relatively better positioned to absorb higher emissions costs; at a hypothetical carbon tax of EUR 50 per tonne, the share of loss-making industrial companies rises from 17% to 32% if firms bear the full cost. DNB also concludes that firms’ ability to pass through costs depends on policy alignment across Europe, and estimates that national policy changes can have a bigger impact on output than EU-level adjustments, citing a national increase in power grid costs as more influential than a higher European carbon tax rate.