Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond CFO Survey shows improved 2026 outlook while tariffs remain top concern

The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, together with Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business and the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, published first-quarter 2026 results from The CFO Survey indicating a more upbeat U.S. economic outlook among financial decision-makers despite ongoing uncertainty around tariff policy. Respondents’ expectations for U.S. GDP growth and their own firms’ revenue growth over the next year remained solid, with demand and hiring plans generally holding up. Tariffs and trade policy ranked as the top concern for the fifth consecutive quarter, followed by labor quality and availability, demand and sales, and uncertainty. Most firms expected demand to rise over the next 12 months and reported continued hiring, mainly for replacement rather than new positions, with few anticipating declining demand or layoffs. Investment intentions were broadly unchanged from the third quarter of 2025, with about one-third planning to invest in structures and almost two-thirds in equipment, primarily for replacement and repair or capacity expansion; around a quarter of equipment investors cited reducing reliance on labor as a factor. On artificial intelligence, companies reported increased AI investment in 2026 and expected productivity gains, with little evidence of substantial AI-driven employment declines, though some—especially larger firms—anticipated shifts away from routine clerical roles toward more skilled technical tasks.