De Nederlandsche Bank published a summary of its Financial Stability Overview saying that the largest Dutch banks would remain resilient under a severe economic shock caused by a prolonged Gulf conflict and persistently high oil prices. Its stress test found that bank profits would fall and losses would rise, but the sector would not be endangered because banks are financially sound and have built strong buffers. DNB said the economic effects are already visible, with Brent crude about 80% higher at end May than at the start of the year. It reiterated that sustained high oil prices could push up prices, increase unemployment and shrink the Dutch economy by 1% in 2027. Higher energy prices have also lifted borrowing costs, with Dutch 10-year government yields at about 3.3% versus 2.7% before the escalation in the Middle East, feeding through to more expensive credit for companies and households. Beyond banks, insurers and pension funds were also described as able to absorb shocks because of strong buffers, while DNB flagged two wider vulnerabilities in the full review: elevated AI-driven equity valuations that could reverse sharply, and rising cyber risk, with the Digital Operational Resilience Act requiring financial firms to strengthen IT risk management, incident reporting, resilience testing and recovery measures.
De Nederlandsche Bank2026-05-26
De Nederlandsche Bank stress test finds largest Dutch banks can absorb Gulf conflict oil shock while warning of broader stability risks
De Nederlandsche Bank’s Financial Stability Overview concludes that the largest Dutch banks, insurers and pension funds would remain resilient under a severe shock from a prolonged Gulf conflict and persistently high oil prices, supported by strong buffers. Stress tests show lower profits and higher losses but no threat to stability, while DNB highlights macroeconomic risks from sustained high energy prices, elevated AI-driven equity valuations and rising cyber risk under the Digital Operational Resilience Act.