The Central Bank of Aruba published its Ease of Lending Survey for 2024 Q4, showing that the improvement in bank credit sentiment seen in 2024 Q3 did not hold. The overall unweighted credit conditions index, measured on a 90 to 110 scale where readings above 100 indicate optimism, fell to 101.7 from 102.2 as banks assessed current conditions less favourably despite a stronger outlook for future conditions. The current credit conditions index dropped to 101.0 from 102.6, driven mainly by a shift in individual lending where sentiment turned pessimistic at 98.5 as banks reported weaker current demand (97.7) while supply conditions were broadly stable. Business loan conditions were largely unchanged, and the portfolio-weighted credit conditions index was broadly flat at 101.6 (from 101.5), suggesting the deterioration was more pronounced among smaller lenders. Supplementary indicators cited alongside the survey showed lower new consumer credit growth (Afl. 48.2 million versus Afl. 57.7 million in 2024 Q3) and lower new housing mortgage value (Afl. 87.1 million versus Afl. 93.3 million), even as excess liquidity increased by Afl. 197.8 million between end-September and end-December 2024. For 2025 Q1, banks expected more favourable credit conditions overall, with the future conditions index rising to 102.4 from 101.7 on improved expectations for individual loan conditions and supply, alongside a slight projected deterioration in business loan conditions. Credit pricing remained the main factor linked to lending terms, with weighted average rates on new consumer credit and new housing mortgages edging up to 8.1 percent and 5.3 percent, while rates on new commercial mortgages fell to 5.9 percent and other new business loans remained at 6.0 percent.

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